SourceMegamillionlotteryresultsZijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Core point of view: the overall black shows a weak trend of concussion this week. From a fundamental point of view, the supply side of hot metal to accelerate the resumption of production, hot metal output has not yet peaked, hot metal is expected to continue to pick up this week. The daily consumption of scrap steel length and short process continues to pick up and is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Individual rolling lines will resume production this week, and it is expected that the output of thread and hot coil will pick up at the same time next week. At present, the rapid increase of coke continues to compress the profits of steel mills, it is expected that the fifth round of coke increase is more difficult to land, the replenishment of raw material inventory of steel mills is basically completed before and after May 1, and the marginal strength of raw material support is weakened. Follow-up focus on steel reservoir slope, if steel production continues to pick up, the demand side is more difficult to undertake, black or phased pressure weakening.

Monthly difference: the overall short-range timber is affected by weak reality and strong expectations, and affected by warehouse receipt pressure in recent months, the monthly difference shows an anti-sleeve structure.

Steel mill profit: neutral this week's profit margin of 247 steel enterprises is 51.Megamillionlotteryresults.95%, down 0% from the previous month.Megamillionlotteryresults.86 percentage points. Coke rises faster, steel mill profits continue to compress, coke increases the fifth round of steel mill production profits compressed to losses, so the fifth round is more difficult to land.

Blast furnace overhaul: according to our statistics for blast furnace overhaul, the blast furnace entered the stage of resumption of production in April. At present, blast furnace overhaul affects 4.07 million tons of hot metal in April, and the profits of steel mills continue to be repaired. At present, the profit rate of steel mills has exceeded that of the same period last year. Steel mills are in the process of resuming production in May, and some blast furnaces are still in the process of resuming production after the festival. It is expected that the output of hot metal will continue to increase in May compared with April.MegamillionlotteryresultsIt's possible.

Scrap: according to our calculation, at present, the East China Electric Furnace Plant has a loss of 180 yuan per ton of steel and nearly 20 yuan per ton of Gu Dian. In the process of resuming production of steel mills, the daily consumption of scrap in long and short processes continues to pick up, and at present, the daily consumption of steel mills is obviously higher than that of the same period last year. The demand for building materials is improving, the inventory continues to go to the warehouse, and the daily consumption of short-process steel mills continues to pick up and pick up quickly, and scrap is likely to continue to rise in the short term.

Finished wood inventory: neutral finished wood inventory continues to go to the warehouse, billet inventory continues to go to the warehouse, thread inventory is still in a relatively low position, hot coil production continues to pick up, demand is difficult to laugh, inventory continues to accumulate.

Disk condition

The average daily hot metal rebounded to 2.34 million tons.

Hot metal continues to rise, but it is still at the lowest level in history.

As of May 10, 2024, the average daily pig iron production was 2.345 million tons, an increase of 38300 tons from the previous month (up 1.66 per cent), a decrease of 2.0 per cent compared with the same period last year.

According to mysteel survey data, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces nationwide this week was 81.5 percent, an increase of 0.9 percent from the previous week; the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity was 87.67 percent, an increase of 1.43 percent from the previous week; and the capacity utilization rate of 81 electric furnaces was 51.88 percent, up 0.78 percent from last week.

The profit margin of 247 steel companies this week was 51.95%, down 0.86 percentage points from the previous month.

The resumption of blast furnace production is continuing.

According to our statistics for blast furnace maintenance, the blast furnace entered the stage of resumption of production in April. At present, the maintenance of blast furnace in April affects 4.07 million tons of hot metal, and the profits of steel mills continue to be repaired. At present, the profit rate of steel mills has exceeded that of the same period last year, and the resumption of production of steel mills in May is in the process of resuming production. It is expected that the output of hot metal will continue to increase in May compared with April.

The output of the five major timber will pick up quickly after the festival.

This week, the combined output of the five major varieties was 8.8579 million tons, up 80700 tons from the previous week (up 0.9 per cent), and 9.2266 million tons in the same period last year, down 4.0 per cent from the same period last year.

Of this total, thread production totaled 2.3061 million tons, down 11800 tons from last week (down 0.5 per cent) and 14.0 per cent compared with the same period last year. Hot coil production was 3.2512 million tons, up 61200 tons (1.9 per cent) from last week and 3.9 per cent from the same period last year.

The output of long-flow thread still has room to pick up.

The profit of rolling is low, and the output of small varieties is weak.

The daily consumption of scrap steel in steel mills has not yet peaked.

Scrap stock keeps low and goes to the warehouse.

The thread meter needs 2.62 million tons.

The finished product table needs to be replenished after the festival.

On the demand side, the total consumption of the five major varieties this week reached 9.302 million tons, an increase of 413700 tons, or 4.7%, over the same period last year.

The weekly consumption of threads was 2.6189 million tons, down 42000 tons from the previous month, or 1.6 percent, down 21.6 percent from the same period last year.

Hot coil consumption was 3.2311 million tons, an increase of 136000 tons, or 4.4 percent, over the same period last year, an increase of 6.9 percent over the same period last year.

Prices fall, building materials turnover weakens

The average trading volume of building materials was 119500 tons on the 5th.

From a regional perspective, as of May 11, the turnover of building materials in East China was 64700 tons; that in North China was 21400 tons; and that in South China was 33800 tons.

The direct supply of cement is close to the same period last year.

The transaction of commercial housing picks up seasonally

The finished wood inventory continues to go to the warehouse.

The pressure of hot coil de-storage is becoming more and more obvious.

The warehouse inventory of the five major varieties was 4.9542 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 190100 tons, or 3.7%.

Social inventories were 13.8793 million tons, a decrease of 252900 tons, or 1.8 per cent, from the previous month.

The thread continues to go to the library, and the hot coil accumulates slightly during the May Day holiday. This week, the thread factory warehouse fell 115100 tons to 2.2262 million tons (4.9%), and the social warehouse dropped 197700 tons to 6.6064 million tons (2.9%). This week, the hot coil factory warehouse rose 3900 tons to 891000 tons (0.4%), and the social warehouse rose 16200 tons to 3.3239 million tons (0.5%).

Billet inventory in mainstream warehouse continues to go to warehouse.

This week, billet stocks in 55 billet mills stood at 402200 tons, up 62200 tons from the previous week and 18.3 per cent from a year earlier. Billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 85.47 tons, down 32900 tons from the previous month and 3.7 per cent lower than the same period last year.

The replenishment of Coke Steel Plant is becoming more and more obvious.

Threaded warehouse receipt inventory is close to 180000 tons

Spot price of thread

Hot roll spot price

Hot roll international price

Basis difference of thread hot coil

Monthly difference of thread hot coil

Production profit of steel mill

Continue to move in after the threaded warehouse receipt expires.

Balance sheet